Davide Menozzi, Cristina Mora, and Alberto Merigo
University of Parma, Italy
Increasing demand for fish must be satisfied sustainably, and genetically modified (GM) fish will probably be part of the solution. This article aims to describe the future trends in the salmon-farming sector and the potential effects of GM salmon introduction on the salmon industry. We have developed a qualitative scenario analysis based on a literature review and expert consultation (n=14). The majority of experts consulted do not believe that GM salmon introduction will be an important technical innovation. Nevertheless, three experts did agree that GM salmon would enter the market in the near future. This would cause new regulations to be introduced, reduce market price, make farmers more dependent on input suppliers, and pose risks to the environment. We used a cross-impact method to create three scenarios: 1) no market for GM fish, 2) GM salmon for dinner, and 3) GM salmon doesn’t take off. The article describes the effects on the salmon industry under each scenario.
Key words: Genetically modified (GM) salmon, salmon farming, qualitative scenario analysis, expert consultation, growthenhanced transgenic salmon, cross-impact method, consumer acceptance.