Stelios Rozakis
Technical University of Crete, Greece
Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation (IUNG-PIB), Poland
Robert Borek
Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation (IUNG-PIB), Poland
European Agroforestry Federation, Montpellier, France

Cultivation of abandoned land can moderate indirect land use change induced by increased food and non-food demand by bio-based sectors. Using spatial analysis, we considered potential area of abandoned lands in Poland, using parcels identification system. The results are used to assess the relative profitability of SRC willow plantations and triticale cropping in medium quality soils. Taking into account uncertainty in prices, yields, maturation period, and seedling survival rate, stochastic budgeting is used to evaluate differential utility. There is no evidence that either agricultural activity is financially sustainable in small parcels. Willow plantations are preferred by risk-averse farmers for parcel sizes higher that 2 ha mainly because of fixed price contracts. Projections at the country level indicate that perennial plantations may reach approximately 20% of abandoned arable area, or 80,000 hectares. Further analysis, taking into account management schemes, demand, and spatial allocation of parcels, is necessary to determine the business potential of the two activities.

Key words: Abandoned land, SRC willow, Poland, stochastic budgeting, utility function.