Stefano Boccaletti
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Francesca Passuello
Independent Researcher
Claudio Soregaroli
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

This study used a participatory scenario development approach—more precisely, a two-day exploratory experts-based workshop—to identify the key driving forces influencing future scenarios for the segregation between GM and non-GM inputs in EU feed and food supply chains, to investigate plausible alternative scenarios, and to discuss their potential implications on supply-chain actors. Twenty supply-chain stakeholders from across Europe with key positions in associations, private companies, universities, or EU institutions took part in the workshop. A medium-term time horizon (2022) was used. The drivers resulting from the discussion were first clustered and then ranked by impact and uncertainty, allowing the identification of the two key driving forces—‘regulatory framework’ (more enabling or restrictive than the current regulations) and ‘consumer’s perception of GMOs’ (more positive or negative than the present one). According to stakeholders, a stricter policy on GMOs in Europe might end up with increased segregation costs for supply-chain actors, a reduced international competitiveness of important sectors, and an uncertain long-term economic sustainability of the niche markets for certified non-GM food products.

Key words: Explorative participatory approach, GM soybean, GMO regulations, scenario development, segregation.